How Poland is leading eastward power shift

What’s driving the day in Brussels.
By Nicholas Vinocur
with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH
Send tips here | Tweet @NicholasVinocur @swheaton @EddyWax | Listen to Playbook and view in your browser
GREETINGS. This is Nick Vinocur and I’m delighted to bring you Playbook from Brussels, where chatter is already heating up about which European commissioner will face the hardest grilling from MEPs when it comes time for hearings. If you missed my colleague Max Griera’s take on who’s going to be raked over the coals vs. merely berated, catch up on the latest edition of our weekly Transition Playbook (drops Fridays) and stay tuned for more on the EU’s version of “Love Island.”
We’ll get into why you should take Central and Eastern Europe seriously down below. But first, an update on the hot story of the weekend …
DUROV IN JAIL: Pavel Durov, a Leningrad-born mogul and founder of Telegram, the encrypted app prized by the Russian-speaking world, was arrested by French police late Saturday after his private plane touched down at Le Bourget, an airport near Paris.
The 39-year-old, who reportedly holds multiple citizenships including of France and the United Arab Emirates, was detained as part of an inquiry into allegations of fraud, drug trafficking, organized crime, promotion of terrorism and cyber-bullying on Telegram, and failing to take action to curb criminal use of the app.
Oops: According to France’s TF1 TV channel, Durov had planned to spend the evening in Paris with his bodyguard and an assistant. Turns out, police had other plans for the billionaire, who usually resides in Dubai.
Legal pickle: As of the early hours of this morning Durov was still in custody, waiting to see whether an investigating magistrate would extend his stay beyond the initial interrogation period, which can last up to a maximum of 96 hours. Next, Durov could be placed under formal investigation (“mise en examen“), which can come with restrictions up to and including temporary imprisonment — or he could be allowed to go free.
Telegram’s response: “Telegram abides by EU laws, including the Digital Services Act — its moderation is within industry standards and constantly improving,” the company said in a statement. “Telegram’s CEO Pavel Durov has nothing to hide and travels frequently in Europe … It is absurd to claim that a platform or its owner are responsible for abuse of that platform.”
Blowback: Durov’s arrest is sending shockwaves in the form of 1) a Franco-Russian diplomatic crisis and 2) uproar from so-called free speech advocates like X owner Elon Musk, who say Durov — who’s resisted calls for content moderation on his platform — is being silenced or censored.
The diplo angle: Russia’s embassy in Paris accused the French of “refusing to cooperate” with Moscow after demanding consular access to Durov, according to Russian state media. Tatyana Moskalkova, Russia’s human rights commissioner, claimed the arrest amounted to an attempt to “shut down Telegram,” a platform where “one can learn the truth about events.” Western authorities say Telegram is a hotbed not just of disinformation, but of drug trafficking and violent extremism in many forms.
The “censorship” angle: No sooner had Durov been led into his Parisian holding cell than Musk was crying out about censorship on his own platform and posting clips of Durov’s April interview with Tucker Carlson in which the Telegram CEO praises X under Musk’s watch for becoming more “pro freedom of speech.”
Birds of a feather: It’s not hard to see why Musk might feel kinship with Durov — both face accusations that illegal content is running rampant on their apps.
Under the EU radar: A key difference is that Durov’s Telegram — whose legal base in Europe is right here in Belgium — doesn’t have enough users to be designated as a Very Large Online Platform (VLOP) under the EU’s Digital Services Act content moderation rules.
On the EU radar: Musk’s X is a VLOP (the threshold is 45 million active users in the EU), and is thus regulated under the strictest oversight regime of the Digital Services Act — and in the sights of EU regulators, who are investigating the company.
The DSA paradox: The fact Telegram, which is used by nearly a billion people around the world, is covered under a lighter regime and overseen by Belgian, not EU, regulators under the DSA, likely allowed French authorities to go after its founder over stricter domestic rules without being accused of flouting EU law.
In contrast, Musk has openly mocked the European Commission’s DSA threats with zero consequences, and there is next to no chance of him ever being plucked off a private airport tarmac by a police officer of any EU country. In other words, Musk is actually lucky to be covered by the DSA as the most unpleasant thing he’s had to endure so far is a stern letter from Commissioner Thierry Breton.
“FLANK” STATES READY TO SEIZE THEIR MOMENT: As the EU gears up for a new legislative term, get ready to see the bloc’s eastern powers playing their cards much more systematically to shape EU and transatlantic policy.
Forget Paris and Berlin. Say hello to Europe’s “flank” states — a group of countries including Nordics, Baltics, Poland, the Czech Republic and Romania, which have a common purpose in wanting to deter Russia, bolster EU defense and maintain the transatlantic relationship.
Talk about the rise of Europe’s east isn’t new. It was the talk of the town right after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine when it appeared that those warning about Moscow’s intentions had, in fact, been right all along. But, as in any relationship, being “right” isn’t enough, especially given Poland at the time was locked in a fruitless rule-of-law dispute with Brussels.
That’s all changing. As Playbook’s Eddy Wax described here, Europe’s leading duo France and Germany are politically depleted, their leaders seen as lame ducks beset by domestic woes. “We have a kind of a leaderless Europe,” said Piotr Buras, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ office in Warsaw. French President Emmanuel Macron “is a leader who is not followed by others,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz “is a very weak leader.” Meaning “we have a void at the center of European politics. And this is of course a very unusual opportunity.”
Nobody home: While Paris’ push for full-blown strategic autonomy has alienated some countries which see it as beneficial mainly to France, Germany has withdrawn from leadership in the bloc’s key geopolitical challenges.
Cue, Poland. That’s created a boulevard for Polish PM Donald Tusk to assert himself on the EU stage and in the transatlantic relationship. His defense spending, friendly but realistic approach to Washington and clear support for Ukraine make him more palatable to many countries on Europe’s eastern flank than Macron or Scholz.
Brace for change: Poland’s foreign minister, Radek Sikorski, has taken the initiative in redefining how the EU should tackle the transatlantic relationship, pushing for better comms about NATO’s upsides for Washington while bracing for change no matter who’s elected U.S. president in November. Sikorski may well use the Warsaw Security Forum taking place Oct. 1-2 to hammer home this message on a larger screen.
Trusted envoy: Tusk has dispatched Piotr Serafin, a confidant, senior diplomat and experienced EU hand to be Poland’s European commissioner in Brussels. An EU diplomat suggested Serafin may end up with the budget portfolio, a key job during a mandate focused on defense spending. “This is Tusk saying that Brussels is important,” the diplomat said. “He wants an insider here who can actually deliver, who knows how the system works.”
Line to VDL: Together, these three Poles are set to influence Ursula von der Leyen as she embarks on a second term at the head of the Berlaymont. It was from Tusk, after all, that von der Leyen sought official EPP endorsement, along with Greece’s prime minister. Now she’s likely to seek out Tusk’s backing again and again on her defense goals.
This group can also look to Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s former prime minister who’s now set to become the bloc’s top diplomat, as an ally. “Kallas forms the link between Poland, the Baltic basin and the Nordics — Denmark, Sweden, Finland,” said Wojciech Przybylski, an analyst with think tank Visegrad Insights. “From a Central European perspective, she is the best we could imagine.”
Taking on Berlin: Kallas pitched a €100 billion eurobond issue to bolster the EU’s defense sector — a non-starter for Berlin, among others. But she has overcome German opposition before. Berlin staunchly opposed Kallas’ nomination as the EU’s next top diplomat. Yet when Tusk hinted he could withdraw his backing for Portuguese Socialist António Costa for the European Council presidency, Berlin withdrew its objections to Kallas, an EU diplomat said.
Nord Stream 2 spat: Nothing quite sums up the shifting dynamic between Berlin and Warsaw like the spat over the alleged perpetrators of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline bombing. 
Get some aloe for that burn: After the former head of Germany’s foreign intelligence agency told Welt that the pipeline attack must have had Polish support, Tusk fired back that the only thing the pipeline’s backers should do is “apologise and keep quiet.” (A Ukrainian suspected of having carried out the pipeline bombing left Poland before a German warrant for his arrest could be served — tant pis).
New alliance unlocked: A sense of shared purpose is bringing Poland and its Baltic and Nordic partners closer together. Representatives of these flank states have been gathering to align their positions ahead of recent meetings of EU leaders in Brussels, diplomats said — a hint of new power dynamics emerging that could trump the so-called Weimar format made up of Warsaw, Berlin and Paris. “Now these countries are much more aligned on important policy issues, with security and Russia being the backbone of this new alliance,” said Buras.
Lithuania has entered the chat: Completing the picture: Andrius Kubilius, Lithuania’s pick to be European commissioner, and Latvia’s Valdis Dombrovskis. “He’s a heavyweight,” Przybylski said of Kubilius, who edged out Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis for the job.
Remember Berlin and Paris: But as skeptics point out, in terms of structural power, France and Germany are still the biggest EU players. Try as they may, Poland can’t force Berlin, or The Hague for that matter, to sign off on new eurobonds or increase the EU budget. “It is very difficult for Tusk to achieve anything at the European level without Germany and France’s full support,” Buras acknowledged.
Bottom line: Still, the first moves of these states shows a sense of purpose not present in the Franco-German duo. And that is already a considerable advantage to winning policy arguments, even if the odds seem stacked against them.
RIGHT ON CUE: Von der Leyen will be in Prague for the 19th GLOBSEC Forum on Friday, where she’ll deliver a speech and receive the Czech and Slovak Transatlantic Award. (POLITICO is GLOBSEC’s official media partner for the forum.)
** Join us at POLITICO’s Health Care Summit on November 19-20 in Brussels to engage with top policymakers and industry leaders on the future of European health care. Don’t miss this opportunity to shape the dialogue and forge impactful connections. Apply now to join us onsite!**
MINISTER ADDRESSES LITHIUM MINE OPPONENTS: Protests have raged for weeks against Serbia’s Jadar mining project, which will supply the EU with the lithium it needs to power its electric vehicles, but which opponents say will lead to significant environmental damage and amounts to economic exploitation.
Let’s talk about it: Serbia’s Minister for EU Integration Tanja Miščević said she understands opponents’ concerns. “People are worried, not only in Serbia but in many countries where there are lithium sites,” Miščević told Playbook reporter Šejla Ahmatović over icy-cold sparkling water in her stiflingly warm government office in Belgrade. “I understand the need to talk about it and this is the most important thing: dialogue.”
Reassurance: Countries “must guarantee quality and environmental protection” to trade goods with the EU, Miščević said. “If you don’t produce a battery based on EU standards, you have no one to sell it to,” she added, insisting that any accusations that Jadar wouldn’t meet standards are “nonsense.”
Lacking resources: Forbes Serbia recently reported that the Balkan country is currently unprepared to manage Jadar, citing a lack of inspection personnel as a key challenge. Miščević acknowledged Serbia doesn’t currently have the systems it needs in place, but said: “That’s why the process needs to be prepared. We must build the systems that are necessary for quality control.”
OPPOSITION VIEW: “There is no lithium mine anywhere in the world located in a populated and fertile area, as is the case in western Serbia, where the extraction is planned,” Srđan Majstorović, chairman of the governing board of the European Policy Centre, told Šejla in a café close to Belgrade’s historic Kalemegdan park. Majstorović said the area where the Jadar project will be located is famous for its fruit trees and provides a third of Serbia’s drinking water.
Lithium-washing Vučić: Majstorović said opponents of the mines are also concerned that the importance of the deal for Europe’s powerful car manufacturing nations could lead to the EU turning a blind eye to authoritarian backsliding in Belgrade. “The European Commission and member states could become too lenient with the violation of democracy and the rule of law in Serbia,” Majstorović said. “One could get the impression that they would prefer Serbia to be outside the European Union … Unfortunately, that is a win-win for the EU.”
MIDDLE EAST ESCALATION — OR IS IT DEESCALATION? Israel carried out preemptive strikes on Hezbollah positions in Southern Lebanon on Sunday in anticipation of retaliation for the assassination of senior commander Fuad Shukr last month. Hezbollah fired back with more than 300 rockets and drones, many of which were intercepted. While leaders have called for calm, some argue the strikes have given both sides room to deescalate.
IRAN’S TERROR FINANCING: Matthew Karnitschnig reports on European and U.S. efforts to cut Hezbollah off from its main source of funding — Iranian oil revenues.
MEANWHILE, IN SCOTLAND: The Scottish National Party is embroiled in a crisis after Angus Robertson, the country’s external affairs minister, met with an Israeli diplomat, Andrew McDonald reports.
JOURNALIST KILLED IN UKRAINE: Ryan Evans, a 40-year-old British safety adviser for Reuters, was killed in a missile strike on a hotel in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine, the news outlet reports. Ukrainian authorities said Russia was behind the strike, which seriously injured two other Reuters journalists.
SOLINGEN ATTACK REVERBERATES IN GERMANY: German police detained a 26-year-old Syrian man in connection with Friday’s knife attack in the city of Solingen. The attack could be a decisive turning point in the coming elections in Saxony and Thuringia, my Berlin Playbook colleague Hans von der Burchard writes, with the far-right AfD using it to mobilize voters, particularly after revelations the suspect should have been deported to Bulgaria, the first EU country of reception, a year ago.
So left she’s right? Meanwhile, Sahra Wagenknecht, a rising star on Germany’s left, is challenging political norms with her brand of “left conservatism,” reports James Angelos. Criticizing affluent “lifestyle leftists” and advocating for stricter immigration policies, Wagenknecht has gained significant support ahead of the elections. Her views have even attracted far-right admirers, blurring the lines of traditional political divides.
GREECE IN FOCUS: In the country famous for inventing democracy, there’s a sense it is fraying, reports Nektaria Stamouli in this feature on a series of scandals that have hit Greece.
EU ON HOLIDAY: We’ve been asking top EU politicians how they’re spending their time off. Today is Jobs Commissioner Nicolas Schmit’s turn. 
Where he’s been spending it: “After a few days in my home region in Luxembourg, the so-called Petite Suisse, I spent 10 days in Greece meeting old friends,” Schmit told Playbook’s Eddy Wax via a spokesperson. 
What he’s reading: “I just finished reading a thriller by Swiss author Joël Dicker called ‘Un animal sauvage,’” he said. It’s a novel about “‘evil intrigue from which no one will emerge unscathed. Not even the reader,” the description reads. Schmit added that he’s now reading economist Joseph E. Stiglitz’s new book “The Road to Freedom: Economics and the Good Society.”
How is he unwinding? “To relax I like to spend time with my family, go for walks in the forest with my dogs and do some gardening at home,” Schmit said.
— Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is in Paris, France; meets with President Emmanuel Macron.— Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager is in Copenhagen, Denmark, where she will deliver a keynote speech at the Danish ambassadors’ forum and participate in a meeting with female Danish Ambassadors.
WEATHER: High of 22C, sunny intervals.
MUSIC FESTIVAL: Celebrate the 20th edition of Ancienne Belgique’s Feeërieën festival in Brussels Park, featuring performances by artists from Japan and South Africa. The lineup features a different genre each evening, ranging from jazz and neoclassical to global music. Starts today at 7 p.m. Free entry.
BIRTHDAYS: Former MEPs David Martin and Renato Soru; UK politician Michael Gove (a POLITICO 28 alum); Christian Schmidt, the U.N. high representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina; Agence Europe’s Camille-Cerise Gessant; AFP’s Arthur MacMillan; POLITICO’s Miles Herszenhorn; journalist Jamal Halaby; Nima Hairy of the Belgian Reformist Movement’s youth wing.
THANKS TO: Playbook editor Alex Spence, Playbook reporter Šejla Ahmatović and producer Catherine Bouris.
CORRECTION: This newsletter was updated to correct Telegram’s regulatory status under the DSA. 
SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | London Playbook PM | Playbook Paris | EU Election Playbook | Berlin Playbook | Global Playbook | POLITICO Confidential | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Watcher | Berlin Bulletin | D.C. Playbook | D.C. Influence | All our POLITICO Pro policy morning newsletters